Kenya is bracing for a maize deficit of up to 25 million 90-kilogram bags this year, and the government’s answer — record imports — means the recent dip in unga prices may not last.
Agriculture and Livestock Development Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has approved the importation of up to 25 million bags of maize to plug the gap between what Kenya grows and what it eats. The country consumes roughly 75 million bags of maize a year, but a botched planting season has cut deep into that supply.
What caused Kenya’s 2026 maize shortage?
The 2026 crop ran into trouble early. Rains arrived ahead of schedule in parts of the North Rift and western Kenya, then cut off during a critical stage of crop development. The dry spell that followed destroyed close to half the planted area in Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia and Nakuru counties — historically Kenya’s grain basket. Delays in delivering subsidised fertiliser to farmers made a bad season worse, cutting yields even on land that did get enough rain.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has since cut its 2026/27 forecast for Kenyan maize production sharply, projecting output down by as much as 40% and estimating the country will need to import around 2.3 million tonnes of maize and 2.6 million tonnes of wheat — roughly 5 million tonnes combined — to cover both crops through the marketing year. That’s a wider, longer-horizon estimate than the government’s bag counts, measured in tonnes rather than 90-kg bags, but it points the same direction.
How big is the shortfall, in numbers people can use?
- National consumption: about 75 million 90-kg bags of maize a year
- Import approval: up to 25 million bags, announced Aug. 19
- Earlier, narrower forecast: a 5.4 million-bag (486,000-tonne) deficit by the end of September, from an early-August estimate
- Local buying-centre price: maize grain has already pushed past Sh50,000 per tonne in some markets, more than $387
- Hardest-hit counties: Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia and Nakuru, in the North Rift and wider Rift Valley grain belt
Will unga prices go up again?
Not yet, but the trend is worth watching. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics recorded a small dip in the price of a 2-kilogram packet of sifted maize flour, from Ksh159.78 in June to Ksh157.15 in July — a 1.6% month-on-month fall. That’s the reassuring number.
The less reassuring one sits just below it: food and non-alcoholic drinks inflation stood at 9.0% in July, one of the biggest drivers behind Kenya’s overall 6.5% inflation rate that month. Millers and traders say the July dip reflected leftover stock from the last decent harvest rather than the shortfall now working its way through the system. Kagwe has said the imports are meant to land before that supply gap forces prices higher at the till — timing that depends on how quickly shipping and port clearance move once orders are placed.
What is the government doing beyond imports?
Kagwe has paired the import approval with several longer-term commitments:
- Expanding irrigation, including the Galana Kulalu scheme, to cut Kenya’s dependence on rain-fed maize
- Working with the National Treasury on tax and bureaucratic hurdles that raise costs for farmers and agribusinesses
- Rolling the Food Systems Resilience Program and the National Agricultural Value Chain Development Project into a new AgriConnect Compact Programme, developed with county governments and the World Bank, aimed at modernising farming and creating jobs for young Kenyans
“We will import maize. We have already made arrangements for that. We will manage the country. The country is not going to go hungry,” Kagwe said when he announced the wider import plan.
What should Kenyan households expect next?
Government officials are framing the imports as a bridge, not a fix — a way to hold prices down while irrigation and farm-input reforms play out over a longer cycle. For now, supply on supermarket and kiosk shelves will likely track how fast North Rift harvests recover next season and how quickly the approved imports clear the port and reach millers. As of mid-September, the two figures worth watching are the ones driving this story: how much of the 25-million-bag import target actually lands before the next KNBS price release, and whether the harvest closes anywhere near the earlier 5.4 million-bag deficit estimate.
Kenya’s Meteorological Department has also flagged an El Niño alert for the coming season, raising the stakes for whether the next planting cycle in the grain belt goes any better than this one. The government has taken a similarly import-heavy approach with other staples this year, including a renewed sugar import ban meant to protect local cane growers — a reminder that Kenya’s food-security playbook right now is a mix of stopgap imports and slower-moving reforms, crop by crop.
FAQ
Why is Kenya short on maize in 2026?
A dry spell that followed unusually early rains cut yields hard in the North Rift and western Kenya, the country’s main maize-growing region, and delayed fertiliser deliveries compounded the damage.
How much maize will Kenya import?
The government has approved imports of up to 25 million 90-kilogram bags to close the gap between the roughly 75 million bags Kenya consumes annually and this year’s reduced harvest.
Are maize flour prices going up?
Not as of July’s data, when a 2kg packet of sifted maize flour eased slightly to Ksh157.15. But food inflation remains elevated at 9.0%, and traders say that dip reflects old stock rather than the current shortfall.
Which parts of Kenya were hit hardest?
Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia and Nakuru counties, in the North Rift and wider Rift Valley grain belt, lost close to half their planted maize area to the dry spell.
Is Kenya also short on wheat?
Yes. The USDA has cut its Kenyan wheat production forecast and expects the country to import roughly 2.6 million tonnes of wheat this marketing year alongside the maize imports.
Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development statements reported by Kenyans.co.ke and The Kenya Times (Aug. 19, 2026); Kenya National Bureau of Statistics inflation data reported by The Kenya Times; USDA production forecasts reported by Ecofin Agency and Milling Middle East & Africa Magazine.
By the 254.ke Newsroom.
