A recent study by European aircraft manufacturer Airbus suggests that West Africa could be on the brink of an aviation revolution, driven by its growing population, diverse economies, and strategic location, which present opportunities for new air routes.
The report, titled Exploring the Horizons: A Study of Unserved Air Routes to, from, and within Africa, identifies nine out of the top 15 unserved routes starting or ending in West Africa. Notable examples include Lagos-New York, Abuja-Nairobi, and Dakar-Libreville.
The study highlights a surprising lack of direct connections between Nigeria and North America throughout 2023 and into the summer of 2024. Only two routes, Lagos-Atlanta and Lagos-Washington, were operated by non-Nigerian airlines (Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, respectively). Moreover, West Africa only had three entry points into North America during this period: Atlanta, New York, and Washington.
Beyond West Africa, other regions of Africa also exhibit significant unserved routes, including connections between cities like Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar, and Douala. The report emphasizes the need for long-haul intercontinental flights to address gaps in air travel demand, particularly from major African cities to global hubs. Currently, passengers face time-consuming connecting flights that add inconvenience to their journeys.
Projections from the African Airlines Association indicate that passenger numbers for African airlines are expected to surpass 100 million for the first time by 2025, reflecting increased traffic volumes. The association forecasts a 15 percent increase in passengers to 98 million by the end of 2024, with further growth expected by 2025.
Airbus anticipates a 4.1 percent annual growth in air traffic over the next 20 years, leading to a demand for 1,180 new aircraft in Africa by 2043. Despite existing challenges, the study highlights the potential for enhanced air travel efficiency through better connectivity and optimized flight paths, which could reduce travel times and costs.
Progress is already being made, with airlines like Ethiopian Airlines expanding routes within Africa and beyond, aiming for a 30 percent increase in passenger numbers by mid-2024. Additionally, foreign carriers such as AirAsia are introducing new intercontinental routes, like a direct flight from East Africa to Kuala Lumpur starting in November, which will streamline travel between East Africa and Asia.
The Airbus report suggests establishing direct long-haul routes between key destinations, including Harare to London, Johannesburg to Mumbai, Entebbe to London, Cape Town to Brussels, Durban to London, and Nairobi to Washington. It also proposes new flights from Lagos to several North American cities, such as Manchester, New York, Toronto, and Houston.
While intra-continental routes with lower traffic numbers, such as Cape Town-Lagos, face economic feasibility challenges, there are promising opportunities. The report notes that despite the importance of Lagos and Cape Town, no direct flights currently exist between them, nor is there direct air service connecting Cape Town with West Africa.
The report also identifies high-potential intra-continental routes, including Dakar-Libreville, Abidjan-Douala, Abuja-Nairobi, and Dakar-Douala. However, experts suggest that facilitating visa-free travel within Africa could significantly ease regional travel.
Alan Hirsch, a research fellow at the New South Institute and emeritus professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, emphasizes that only 27 percent of African routes allowed visa-free travel by the end of 2022. He highlights that improving cross-border movement is a major goal of the African Union’s Agenda 2063.
