The ODM party, led by former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, is grappling with internal tensions linked to its partnership with the Kenya Kwanza government. The 2024 broad-based government arrangement, which saw some of Raila’s allies nominated to the Cabinet, has sparked unease within the party, with leaders divided over its implications for ODM’s future.
Division Within ODM
While some party members see the partnership as a stabilizing move for the country, others view it as a strategic misstep that could jeopardize ODM’s ambitions for the 2027 elections. Discontent among ODM leaders is becoming increasingly evident, with many skipping functions involving President William Ruto.
Notable absentees from key events include ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, and MPs Babu Owino (Embakasi East), TJ Kajwang’ (Ruaraka), and Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands). Sifuna has been vocal in distancing ODM from any formal agreement with the ruling party, terming certain invitations as “disrespectful.”
Similarly, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka publicly declined an invitation to President Ruto’s New Year’s Eve dinner, citing his personal convictions.
Concerns Over Party Leadership and Strategy
The growing rift raises concerns about ODM’s leadership structure, particularly if Raila Odinga secures the African Union Commission chairmanship, potentially leaving a leadership vacuum. Pundits warn that continued association with the ruling UDA could undermine ODM’s credibility as an opposition party.
Some party members, however, downplay these concerns, asserting that ODM remains intact and committed to its oversight role. ODM Deputy Leader Godfrey Osotsi emphasized that attending government functions does not signify alignment with the administration.
“ODM has no coalition agreement with the government. Those who joined the government resigned from ODM and do not represent the party’s position,” Osotsi clarified.
Speculation of an Alliance for 2027
Amid the tensions, speculation is mounting over a potential alliance between Raila and Ruto for the 2027 elections. Reports suggest that President Ruto’s allies are keen on forming a political coalition that includes opposition figures.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei and senior economic adviser Moses Kuria have hinted at the possibility of Raila supporting Ruto’s re-election bid. Cherargei dismissed the likelihood of Raila running for the presidency again, suggesting instead a partnership between the two leaders.
“In 2027, there is only one horse, H.E. Ruto, possibly in combination with Tinga [Raila]. The rest are donkeys,” Cherargei remarked.
Kuria also predicted a “nationalist movement” similar to the 2002 Rainbow Coalition, which brought together various political factions.
Mixed Signals from Raila
Raila’s recent declaration that ODM would challenge Ruto in 2027 has added to the confusion within the party. Critics, including Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, accused Raila of sending conflicting messages, depending on the audience.
“In Nyanza, you unequivocally back Ruto, but in Western, you talk about opposing him. This confuses the people,” Khalwale said.
Future of ODM
Former ODM political affairs secretary Wafula Buke believes that the party might align with Ruto’s government rather than pursuing power independently.
“Nobody is sure if ODM will contest for power or simply join the government to share in its success,” Buke stated.
As the 2027 elections approach, the unfolding dynamics within ODM and its relationship with the ruling administration will shape the country’s political landscape.
