By the 254.ke Newsroom
The Kenya Meteorological Department expects rain in 46 counties between November 3 and 9, 2026, including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu and Nakuru. The forecast, reported by K24 Digital on November 2, does not carry a flood or landslide warning. Turkana is the notable absence from the rain list. Showers are due mostly in the morning at the Coast, in the afternoon and evening across the western highlands and Rift Valley, and at night in parts of central Kenya and Nairobi.
Which counties get rain from November 3 to 9, 2026?
The forecast names 46 counties. They are Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Samburu, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot.
What time of day will it rain?
The department’s outlook splits the week by time of day, which matters more for commuters than a bare county list.
| Time of day | Where |
|---|---|
| Morning showers | Parts of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu; also Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir |
| Afternoon showers and thunderstorms | Parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot |
| Night showers | Parts of Embu, Isiolo, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri and Tharaka-Nithi |
How hot and how cold will it get?
Daytime temperatures above 35°C are forecast for parts of Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana. Lodwar is forecast to reach 38.0°C and Garissa 37.0°C. At the other end, night averages below 10°C are expected in parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nakuru and Kajiado, with Nyahururu the coldest at 8.0°C. Nairobi is forecast at 31.0°C by day and 15.0°C at night.
How much rain fell last week?
The wettest station for the seven days from October 26 to November 1 was NYS Witu in Lamu County, which recorded 188.0 mm, according to the same report.
Is this part of the El Niño short rains?
Yes. In late August the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority told the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum that October to December 2026 would bring above-average rainfall over roughly 80 percent of the country, as reported by Nairobi Wire. Climate Lens News reported that the Niño 3.4 index hit 2.7°C in mid-August, described as a very strong El Niño, and that the National Disaster Operations Centre is planning for a worst case of up to 1.5 million people affected and about 500,000 displaced. Those figures are preparedness planning numbers, not a prediction. The authority also cautioned that El Niño does not guarantee heavy rain everywhere.
Coastal areas are expected to see the season end in the first or second week of December, while the central highlands, Nairobi and western Kenya are due to stay wet into January.
What should residents do this week?
- Check the Kenya Meteorological Department for daily and county updates, since weekly outlooks can shift.
- In Nairobi, see our map of 227 mapped flood hotspots and where to report them.
- Farmers can read our guide to short rains planting and fertiliser prices.
- Our earlier report on the Nairobi dam spillway opening covers upstream preparations.
FAQ
Will it rain in Nairobi this week? Yes. Nairobi is on the list, with showers expected in the morning and at night.
Is there a flood warning for November 3 to 9? The report on the forecast contains no flood or landslide warning, but residents of low-lying areas should still watch for updates.
Which county got the most rain last week? Lamu, where NYS Witu recorded 188.0 mm between October 26 and November 1.
When do the short rains end? Around early December at the Coast and into January in western Kenya and the central highlands, per the seasonal outlook.
Sources: Kenya Meteorological Department forecast as reported by K24 Digital (November 2, 2026); Kenya Meteorological Service Authority seasonal outlook as reported by Nairobi Wire (August 28, 2026) and Climate Lens News (August 27, 2026).
