Kagame’s Continued Dominance: Rwanda’s 2024 Election Landscape

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Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, a figure both feared and admired, is poised to extend his 24-year presidency in an election analysts predict he will win by a wide margin. Since assuming the presidency in 2000, he has consistently secured over 90% of the vote, including a staggering 99% in 2017.
At 66, Kagame faces two officially authorized opponents, as other candidates were barred by the state-run electoral commission. His leadership began when his rebel forces seized power at the end of the 1994 genocide, which claimed approximately 800,000 ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus.
Kagame has been credited with Rwanda’s remarkable recovery and unification, with Dr. Felix Ndahinda, a Great Lakes region scholar, stating, “Rwanda was essentially written off 30 years ago, but under Kagame’s leadership, the country has built stability.”
However, critics argue that Kagame has stifled opposition, allegedly even orchestrating cross-border assassinations of dissidents. While Kagame defends Rwanda’s human rights record, asserting respect for political freedoms, analysts describe the upcoming election as a mere “formality.”
Around nine million voters are registered, with at least two million casting ballots for the first time. A provisional winner is expected to be announced by Tuesday morning. On Monday, voters will select the president and 53 members of the lower House of Parliament, with 27 additional MPs to be elected the following day.
First-time voter Sylvia Mutoni expressed her excitement, saying, “I can’t wait.” For many young Rwandans, Kagame is the only leader they have known, having been in power since 2000, despite serving as vice-president and defense minister from 1994 to 2000.
The two opposition candidates—Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party and independent Philippe Mpayimana—both participated in the 2017 election, collectively garnering less than 1% of the vote. Nevertheless, they remain hopeful. Habineza stated, “I believe democracy is a process,” advocating for freedom of speech and media.
Some Rwandans are receptive to their message. Celestin Mutuyeyezu, 28, once a Kagame supporter, expressed his change of heart, citing Habineza’s focus on unemployment as influential.
However, defeating Kagame may be challenging. Diane Rwigara, a prominent critic, was barred from running in both this and the 2017 elections, with the electoral commission citing documentation issues. She remarked, “Rwanda is portrayed as a country with economic growth, but on the ground, people lack basic necessities.”
Despite high youth unemployment, Rwanda boasts one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Kagame is credited with the country’s significant economic transformation and stability over the past three decades. Notably, Rwanda has a clean capital city and the world’s highest percentage of female MPs at 61%.
In “Rwanda, Inc.,” authors Patricia Crisafulli and Andrea Redmond depict Kagame more as a CEO than a traditional political leader, highlighting his commitment to excellence across various sectors. He is also a skilled politician, cultivating international relationships, such as a now-defunct agreement with the UK regarding asylum seekers.
Rwanda has showcased its soft power through sports, culture, and entertainment, hosting international events and concerts, including performances by artists like Kendrick Lamar. Yet, Kagame’s diplomatic strategies can be aggressive; a recent UN report indicated the presence of 4,000 Rwandan troops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accused of supporting the M23 rebel group. The Rwandan government did not deny these claims, instead attributing the ongoing conflict in the mineral-rich eastern DRC to a lack of political will from the Congolese government.
On the campaign trail, Kagame has vowed to safeguard Rwanda against “external aggression,” especially amid tensions with neighboring DRC and Burundi.